Using the Freshman On-Track Indicator to Predict Graduation in Two Urban Districts in the Midwest Region
This paper examines the ability of the freshman on-track indicator and off-track indicator to successfully predict graduation of high school freshman using student-level data collected for cohorts in two districts. The authors found the on-track indicator to be effective in predicting on-time graduation, even when controlling for student characteristics and grade 8 assessment scores. Also, students from both districts who were on track to graduate at the end of grade 9 did so on time and more than students who were off track.