Using the Freshman On-Track Indicator to Predict Graduation in Two Urban Districts in the Midwest Region

This paper examines the ability of the freshman on-track indicator and off-track indicator to successfully predict graduation of high school freshman using student-level data collected for cohorts in two districts. The authors found the on-track indicator to be effective in predicting on-time graduation, even when controlling for student characteristics and grade 8 assessment scores. Also, students from both districts who were on track to graduate at the end of grade 9 did so on time and more than students who were off track. Additionally, the effect size of being on track compared to being off track was bigger than the effect size for all student background characteristics, and for grade 8 assessment test scores for both districts.